Multi-Pathogen Scenario Modeling and Forecasting
As part of the Center for Accelerating Modeling Utilization and Synthesis (CAMUS), this project aims to support long-term scenario modeling and short-term forecasting of relevant pathogens through a collaborative effort between academic modeling teams and government agencies (e.g. CDC) across North America. Currently these diseases include COVID-19 and Influenza in the United States, with plans to expand to an additional pathogen based on public health needs. Through the Scenario Modeling Hub, teams provide probabilistic projections for each future week, which are then combined into an ensemble for each desired scenario, outcome, week, and location. The goal of these long-term projections is to compare outbreak trajectories under different scenarios, as opposed to offering a specific, unconditional estimate of what “will” happen. Projections in the Scenario Modeling Hub are meant to build on and complement forecasts in the COVID-19 Forecast Hub and FluSight. More information on these projections can be found here:
Our scenario- and forecast-based projections for COVID-19 and influenza are produced using flepiMop (formerly the COVID Scenario Pipeline), a model framework custom-built by our team for simulating infectious disease dynamics and inferring parameters from data. This R-based open-source software package is publicly on Github and easily adaptable to other pathogens, spatial scales, geographic locations, data sources, and projection needs.