Publications

Metcalf CJE, Lessler J.

Opportunities and challenges in modeling emerging infectious diseases.

Science, 2017; 157(6347): 149-152. 10.1126/science.aam8335

Bi Q, Ferraras E, Pezzoli L, Legros D, Ivers LC, Date K, Qadri F, Digilio L, Sack DA, Ali M, Lessler J, Luquero FJ, Azman AS.

Protection against cholera from killed whole-cell oral cholera vaccines: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Lancet Infect Dis, 2017; : . 10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30359-6

Parkler LA, Rumunu J, Jamet C, Kenyi Y, Lino RL, Wamala JF, Mpairwe AM, Muller V, Llosa AE, Uzzeni F, Luquero FJ, Cignlenecki I, Azman AS.

Neighborhood-targeted and case-triggered use of a single dose of oral cholera vaccine in an urban setting: Feasibility and vaccine coverage.

PLOS Negl Trop Dis, 2017; : . 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005652

Kirsch TD, Moseson H, Massaquoi M, Nyenswah TG, Goodermorte R, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Lessler J, Cummings DAT, Peters DH.

Impact of interventions and the incidence of Ebola virus disease in Liberia-implications for future epidemics.

Health Policy Plan, 2017; 32(4): 602. 10.1093/heapol/czw163

Blanquart F, Wymant C, Cornelissen M, Gall A, Bakker M, Bezemer D, Hall M, Hillebregt M, Ong SH, Albert J, Bannert N, Fellay J, Fransen K, Gourlay AJ, Grabowski MK, Gunsenheimer-Bartmeyer B, Günthard HF, Kivelä P, Kouyos R, Laeyendecker O, Liitsola K, Meyer L, Porter K, Ristola M, van Sighem A, Vanham G, Berkhout B, Kellam P, Reiss P, Fraser C, Beehive Collaboration.

Viral genetic variation accounts for a third of variability in HIV-1 set-point viral load in Europe.

PLoS Biol, 2017; 15(6): e2001855. 10.1371/journal.pbio.2001855

Ratmann O, Wymant C, Colijn C, Danaviah S, Essex M, Frost SDW, Gall A, Gaiseitsiwe S, Grabowski M, Gray R, Guindon S, von Haeseler A, Kaleebu P, Kendall M, Kozlov A, Manasa J, Minh BQ, Moyo S, Novitsky V, Nsubuga R, Pillay S, Quinn TC, Serwadda D, Ssemwanga D, Stamatakis A, Trifinopoulos J, Wawer M, Leigh Brown A, de Oliveira T, Kellam P, Pillay D, Fraser C.

HIV-1 full-genome phylogenetics of generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa: impact of missing nucleotide characters in next-generation sequences.

AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses, 2017; : . 10.1089/AID.2017.0061

Billioux VG, Chang LW, Reynolds SJ, Nakigozi G, Ssekasanvu J, Grabowski MK, Ssekubugu R, Nalugoda F, Kigozi G, Kagaayi J, Serwadda D, Gray RH, Wawer MJ.

Human immunodeficiency virus care cascade among sub-populations in Rakai, Uganda: an observational study.

J Int AIDS Soc, 2017; 20(1): 1-9. 10.7448/IAS.20.1.21590

Fojo AT, Stennis NL, Azman AS, Kendall EA, Shrestha S, Ahuja SD, Dowdy DW.

Current and future trends in tuberculosis incidence in New York City: a dynamic modelling analysis.

Lancet Public Health, 2017; 2(7): e323-e330. 10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30119-6

Pierce R, Bryant K, Elward A, Lessler J, Milstone AM.

Bacterial Infections in Neonates Following Mupirocin-Based MRSA Decolonization: A Multicenter Cohort Study.

Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol, 2017; 38(8): 930 – 9. 10.1017/ice.2017.108

Takahashi S, Metcalf CJE, Ferrari MJ, Tatem AJ, Lessler J.

The geography of measles vaccination in the African Great Lakes region.

Nat Commun, 2017; 8: 15585. 10.1038/ncomms15585.

Kirsch TD, Moseson H, Massaquoi M, Nyenswah TG, Goodermote R, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Lessler J, Cumings DAT, Peters DH.

Impact of interventions and the incidence of Ebola virus disease in Liberia- implications for future epidemics.

Health Policy Plan, 2017; 32(4): 602. doi.org/10.1093/heapol/czw163

Lessler J, Azman AS, McKay HS, Moore SM.

What is a Hotspot Anyway?

Am J Trop Med Hyg, 2017; 96(6): 1270-73. 10.4269/ajtmh.16-0427

Reich NG, Lessler J, Varma JK, Vora NM.

Quantifying the Risk and Cost of Active Monitoring for Infectious Diseases.

bioRxiv, 2017; : . 10.1101/156497

Azman AS, Bouhenia M, Ayer AS, Rumunu J, Laku RL, Wamala JF, Rodriguez Barraquer I, Lessler J, Gignoux E, Luquero FJ, Leung DT, Gurley ES, Ciglenecki I.

High Hepatitis E Seroprevalence Among Displaced Persons in South Sudan.

Am J Trop Med Hyg, 2017; 96(6): 1296-1301. 10.4269/ajtmh.16-0620

Moore SM, Azman AS, Zaitchik BF, Mintz ED, Brunkard J, Legros D, Hill A, McKay H, Luquero FJ, Olson D, Lessler J.

El Niño and the shifting geography of cholera in Africa.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2017; 114(17): 4436-41. 10.1073/pnas.1617218114

Arthur RF, Gurley ES, Salje H, Bloomfield LSP, Jones JH.

Contact structure, mobility, environmental impact and behaviour: the importance of social forces to infectious disease dynamics and disease ecology.

Phil Trans R Soc B, 2017; 372(1719): 20160454. 10.1098/rstb.2016.0454

Kendall EA, Azman AS, Cobelens FG, Dowdy DW.

MDR-TB treatment as prevention: The projected population-level impact of expanded treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis.

PLoS One, 2017; 12(3): e0172748. 10.1371/journal.pone.0172748

Salje H, Lessler J, Berry IM, Melendrez MC, Endy T, Kalayanarooj S, Atchareeya A, Chanama S, Sangkijporn S, Klungthong C, Thaisomboonsuk B, Nisalak A, Gibbons RV, Iamsirithaworn S, Macareo LR, Yoon IK, Sangarsang A, Jarman RG, Cummings DAT.

Dengue diversity across spatial and temporal scales: Local structure and the effect of host population size.

Science, 2017; 355(6331): 1302-06. 10.1126/science.aaj9384

Faruque LI, Zaman RU, Gurley ES, Massung RF, Alamgir ASM, Galloway RL, Powers AM, Bai Y, Kosoy M, Nicholson WL, Rahman M, Luby SP.

Prevalence and clinical presentation of Rickettsia, Coxiella, Leptospira, Bartonella and chikungunya virus infections among hospital-based febrile patients from December 2008 to November 2009 in Bangladesh.

BMC Infect Dis, 2017; 17(141): . 10.1186/s12879-017-2239-6

Satter SM, Gastanaduy PA, Islam K, Rahman M, Rahman M, Luby SP, Heffelfinger JD, Parashar UD, Gurley ES.

Hospital-based Surveillance for Rotavirus Gastroenteritis Among Young Children in Bangladesh: Defining the Potential Impact of a Rotavirus Vaccine Program

Pediatr Infect Dis J, 2017; 36(2): 168-72. 10.1097/INF.0000000000001381

Schlusser KE, Konikoff J, Kirkpatrick AR, Morrison C, Chipato T, Chen PL, Munjoma M, Eshleman SH, Laeyendecker O.

Comparison of Maxim and Sedia Limiting Antigen Assay Performance for Measuring HIV Incidence

AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses, 2017; : . doi:10.1089/AID.2016.0245.

Prada JM, Metcalf CJE, Takahashi S, Lessler J, Tatem AJ, Ferrari M.

Demographics, epidemiology and the impact of vaccination campaigns in a measles-free world–Can elimination be maintained?

Vaccine, 2017; 35(11): 1488-93. 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.02.008

Nikolay B, Salje H, Sturm-Ramirez K, Azziz-Baumgartner E, Homaira N, Makhdum M, Iuliano AD, Paul RC, Rahman M, Hossain MJ, Luby SP, Cauchemez S, Gurley ES.

Evaluating Hospital-Based Surveillance for Outbreak Detection in Bangladesh: Analysis of Healthcare Utilization Data.

PLoS Med, 2017; 14(1): e1002218. 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002218

Chen I, Chau G, Wang J, Clarke W, Marzinke MA, Cummings V, Breaud A, Laeyendecker O, Fields SD, Griffith S, Scott HM, Shoptaw S, Del Rio C, Magnus M, Mannheimer S, Tieu HV, Wheeler DP, Mayer KH, Koblin BA, Eshleman SH.

Analysis of HIV Diversity in HIV-Infected Black Men Who Have Sex with Men (HPTN 061).

PLoS One, 2017; 11(12): e0167629. 10.1371/journal.pone.0167629

Walker-Sperling VE, Pohlmeyer CW, Veenhuis RT, May M, Luna KA, Kirkpatrick AR, Laeyendecker O, Cox AL, Carrington M, Bailey JR, Arduino RC, Blankson JN.

Factors Associated With the Control of Viral Replication and Virologic Breakthrough in a Recently Infected HIV-1 Controller.

EBioMedicine, 2017; pii: S2352-3964(17): 30038-5. 10.1016/j.ebiom.2017.01.034

Ali M, Nelson A, Luquero FJ, Azman AS, Debes AK, M’bang’ombe MM, Seyama L, Kachale E, Zuze K, Malichi D, Zulu F, Msyamboza KP, Kabuluzi S, Sack DA.

Safety of a killed oral cholera vaccine (Shanchol) in pregnant women in Malawi: an observational cohort study.

Lancet Infect Dis, 2017; : . 10.1016/ S1473-3099(16)30523-0

Parker LA, Rumunu J, Jamet C, Kenyi Y, Lino RL, Wamala JF, Mpairwe AM, Ciglenecki I, Luquero FJ, Azman AS, Cabrol JC.

Adapting to the global shortage of cholera vaccines: targeted single dose cholera vaccine in response to an outbreak in South Sudan.

Lancet Infect Dis, 2017; : . 10.1016/S1473-3099(16)30472-8

Patel EU, Gianella S, Newell K, Tobian AAR Kirkpatrick AR, Nalugoda F, Grabowski MK, Gray RH, Serwadda D, Quinn T, Redd AD, Reynolds SJ.

Elevated cytomegalovirus IgG antibody levels are associated with HIV-1 disease progression and immune activation.

AIDS, 2017; : . 10.1097/QAD.0000000000001412

Mahiané SG, Laeyendecker O.

Segmented polynomials for incidence rate estimation from prevalence data.

Stat Med. , 2017; 36(2): 334-344. 10.1002/sim.7130

Murphy G, Pilcher CD, Keating SM, Kassanjee R, Facente SN, Welte A, Grebe E, Marson K, Busch MP, Dailey P, Parkin N, Osborn J, Ongarello S, Marsh K, Garcia-Calleja JM; Consortium for the Evaluation and Performance of HIV Incidence Assays (CEPHIA).

Moving towards a reliable HIV incidence test - current status, resources available, future directions and challenges ahead.

Epidemiol Infect, 2016; : 1-17. 10.1017/S0950268816002910

Flasche S, Jit M, Rodríguez-Barraquer I, Coudeville L, Recker M, Koelle K, Milne G, Hladish TJ, Perkins TA, Cummings DAT, Dorigatti I, Laydon DJ, España G, Kelso J, Longini I, Lourenco J, Pearson CAB, Reiner RC, Mier-y-Terán-Romero L, Vannice K, Ferguson N.

The long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination with a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia): a model comparison study.

PLoS Med, 2016; 13(11): e1002181. 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002181

Grabowski MK, Gravitt PE, Gray RH, Serwadda D, Redd AD, Kigozi G, Kong X, Nalugoda F, Wawer MJ, Quinn TC, Tobian AAR.

Trends and determinants of human papillomavirus concordance among HIV-positive and HIV-negative heterosexual couples in Rakai, Uganda.

J Infect Dis, 2016; : jiw631. 10.1093/infdis/jiw631

Pierce R, Bryant K, Elward A, Lessler J, Milstone AM.

Gram-Negative and Fungal Infections Following Mupirocin-Based Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Decolonization in Neonates.

Open Forum Infect Dis, 2016; 3 (Suppl 1): 694. 10.1093/ofid/ofw172.557

Houben RM, Menzies NA, Sumner T, Huynh GH, Arinaminpathy N, Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Lin HH, Wu CY, Mandal S, Pandey S, Suen SC, Bendavid E, Azman AS, Dowdy DW, Bacaër N, Rhines AS, Feldman MW, Handel A, Whalen CC, Chang ST, Wagner BG, Eckhoff PA, Trauer JM, Denholm JT, McBryde ES, Cohen T, Salomon JA, Pretorius C, Lalli M, Eaton JW, Boccia D, Hosseini M, Gomez GB, Sahu S, Daniels C, Ditiu L, Chin DP, Wang L, Chadha VK, Rade K, Dewan P, Hippner P, Charalambous S, Grant AD, Churchyard G, Pillay Y, Mametja LD, Kimerling ME, Vassall A, White RG.

Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models.

Lancet Glob Health, 2016; 4(11): e806-e815. 10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30199-1

Menzies N, Gomez GB, Bozzani F, Chatterjee S, Foster N, Baena IG, Laurence YV, Qiang S, Siroka A, Sweeney S, Verguet S, Arinaminpathy N, Azman AS, Bendavid E, Chang ST, Cohen T, Denholm JT, Dowdy DW, Eckhoff PA, Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Handel A, Huynh GH, Lalli M, Lin HH, Mandal S, McBryde ES, Pandey S, Salomon JA, Suen SC, Sumner T, Trauer JM, Wagner BG, Whalen CC, Wu CY, Boccia D, Chadha VK, Charalambous S, Chin DP, Churchyard G, Daniels C, Dewan P, Ditiu L, Eaton JW, Grant AD, Hippner P, Hosseini M, Mametja D, Pretorius C, Pillay Y, Rade K, Sahu S, Wang L, Houben RM, Kimerling ME, White RG, Vassall A.

Cost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on tuberculosis in China, India, and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models.

Lancet Glob Health, 2016; 4(11): e816-e826. 10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30265-0

Iyer AS, Bouhenia M, Rumunu J, Abubakar A, Gruninger RJ, Pita J, Lino RL, Deng LL, Wamala JF, Ryan ET, Martin S, Legros D, Lessler J, Sack DA, Luquero FJ, Leung DT, Azman AS.

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