The capacity to accurately estimate incidence of HIV and HCV from cross sectional surveys is critical to the determining the current state of the epidemic and assessing the impact of population level interventions. These methodologies are used for country level incidence estimates, such as the Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (currently being performed in 15 countries receiving PEPFAR funding), large intervention trials, and at an individual level (for all newly diagnosed persons in the UK).

Using biomarkers associated with recent infection, we have developed and validated testing algorithms to generate point estimates of incidence and incidence differences between paired surveys.  Both serologic (properties of the antibody response) and nucleic acid (viral diversity) have been exploited for this purpose.