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COVID-19

This work aims to address and better understand the COVID-19 disease and corresponding pandemic via scenario modeling, forecasting and other support measures.

Amid the current pandemic, our group is using the theoretical and empirical approaches consistently implemented in our projects of focus to assist in the global combative efforts against COVID-19. Our current efforts to aid in response to COVID-19 and to better understand the transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strain are listed below:

Contact Tracing Evaluation and Strategic Support Application (ConTESSA)

ConTESSA is a contact tracing application developed for contact tracing program managers. It is meant to indicate the impacts of current programs, as well as emphasize areas in need of greater focus to reduce COVID-19 transmission in identified communities. The scenarios generated by the application are applicable at both the household and community level. This app is in collaboration with Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health researchers. The application can be found here: https://iddynamics.jhsph.edu/apps/connect/contessa/ .

COVID-19 Scenario Pipeline

This scenario pipeline is a public shared code (via GitHub) used for scenario forecasting and can assist in creating reports for various government entities. The model was designed to be as versatile as possible, allowing for its use with varied parameters (i.e. different spatial scales given the shapefiles, population data and COVID-19 confirmed case data available). The pipeline has been used to support several partners including the state of California and the national US response. Access to the pipeline can be found here: https://github.com/HopkinsIDD/COVIDScenarioPipeline .

Health Intervention Tracking (HIT-COVID)

HIT-COVID is a live database focused on the collection of data related to global health COVID-19 intervention policies at the national and first-level administrative units. The intervention policies of interest are believed to have a direct impact on disease transmission. The data is anticipated to assist in the national and subnational governmental determinants of closing or reopening sectors of society. This work is in collaboration with the Boston University School of Public Health. The database can be found here: https://akuko.io/post/covid-intervention-tracking .

2019 Novel Coronavirus Research Compendium (NCRC)

The NCRC is a centralized, curated location for novel research on the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strain and the COVID-19 disease. The research is grouped by general topic, with new topic-related reviews continually made available. This is a collaborative effort between the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health and the School of Medicine. The compendium can be found here: https://ncrc.jhsph.edu .

Understanding SARS-COV-2 Transmission with Serologic Data

We are working with multiple collaborators, including those at Massachusetts General Hospital and Hôpitaux universitaires de Genève (Switzerland) to better characterize the human antibody response to SARS-COV-2 infections and to use these data to better understand key aspects of SARS-COV-2 transmission.

SARS-CoV-2 Genomics

We are working with groups across Johns Hopkins University to sequence the SARS-CoV-2 genome from patient samples to better understand the lineages circulating in the National Capital Region. As part of this collaboration, we have published over 100 viral genomes from the region to public databases (including GISAID and NCBI Genbank) and are working to integrate these data with epidemiological models to further characterize transmission dynamics.

COVID-19 Training Initiative

The COVID-19 Training Initiative draws on the resources at the Bloomberg School of Public Health and Johns Hopkins University to provide free online courses and tools, tailored training for public health departments in the US, and additional training for the Baltimore Health Corps. Training materials developed by the Initiative can be found here: https://www.jhsph.edu/practice/covid-19-resources/courses-and-modules/ .

Principal Investigator

Andrew Azman Assistant Scientist

M. Kate Grabowski Assistant Professor

Emily Gurley Associate Scientist

Elizabeth C. Lee Research Associate

Kyu Han Lee Research Associate

Justin Lessler Associate Professor

Shaun Truelove Assistant Scientist

Updates #covid19

2 months 2 weeks ago

RT @LucyStats: 📅🎄 We are officially 14 days, or one #COVID19 quarantine, from Christmas Since folks are likely considering quara… https://t.co/0cDitzMZlL
3 months 1 week ago

RT @JustinLessler: 1,928 US #Covid19 deaths yesterday. Last day with over 1,900 was May 7. The cases to double the current rate are al… https://t.co/6M5o7aOjyp
3 months 1 week ago

RT @JustinLessler: My thoughts on the need for better defining what our goals are in #COVID19 control as we enter a new phase of the p… https://t.co/vNFhlNglRb
3 months 2 weeks ago

RT @reichlab: Post-doc position for helping with modeling at the #COVID19 Forecast Hub still accepting applications. Come join th… https://t.co/bYSM4bKnVS
4 months 1 week ago

RT @JustinLessler: This is exactly the point. #COVID19 testing is a tool on the way to a solution, not the solution itself. https://t.co/yqzWBWnI07
4 months 1 week ago

RT @JohnsHopkinsSPH: "As we confront new stages of the #COVID19 pandemic over the coming months and years, overdispersion can help us be… https://t.co/5JAo12HcmO
4 months 3 weeks ago

RT @JustinLessler: Contrasts to @QifangB to on the successful defense of her dissertation. I assume one of the first purely #COVID19 d… https://t.co/D9bGfq0jdI
7 months 1 week ago

RT @NMRelleno: Excited to take over the @societyforepi Twitter account for the day! Follow along for insights into how #COVID19 is… https://t.co/SSCSSwFyim
8 months 1 week ago

RT @JustinLessler: An important thread from @JHIDDynamics alum @NMRelleno . It both highlights the impact of #COVID19 on native commun… https://t.co/PuOjHGkH6w
8 months 2 weeks ago

Excellent work by @andrewazman providing insights into #COVID19 transmission from Swiss serosurveys https://t.co/JxGFrCLl2r
8 months 3 weeks ago

RT @JustinLessler: We are looking for an R shiny developer too help us implement an app to help guide contact tracing programs for… https://t.co/581IO1iEMy
9 months 2 weeks ago

RT @reichlab: Proud of the leadership that @CDCDirector is showing in using multiple models to communicate about #COVID19 deaths… https://t.co/Srn9rj54eo

Funders

Bloomberg Philanthropies

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

Johns Hopkins Health System

State of California

Collaborators

Boston University School of Public Health

Hôpitaux Universitaires de Genève (HUG)

Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Johns Hopkins School of Medicine

Publications

2 Feb 2021

Insight into the practical performance of RT-PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 using serological data: a cohort study

Zhang Z, Bi Q, Fang S, Wei L, Wang X, He J, Wu Y, Liu X, Gao W, Zhang R, Gong W, Su Q, Azman AS, Lessler J, Zou X

Lancet Microbe, 2021: 2(2): E79-E87, 10.1016/S2666-5247(20)30200-7

7 Aug 2020

Sex, age, and hospitalization drive antibody responses in a COVID-19 convalescent plasma donor population

Klein SL, Pekosz A, Park HS, Ursin RL, Shapiro JR, Benner SE, Littlefield K, Kumar S, Naik HM, Betenbaugh M, Shrestha R, Wu AA, Hughes RM, Burgess I, Caturegli P, Laeyendecker O, Quinn TC, Sullivan DJ, Shoham S, Redd AD, Bloch EM, Casadevall A, Tobian AAR

J Clin Invest, 2020: 10.1172/JCI142004

23 Oct 2020

The engines of SARS-CoV-2 spread

Lee EC, Wada NI, Grabowski MK, Gurley ES, Lessler J

Science, 2020: 370 (6515): 406-407, 10.1126/science.abd8755

8 Oct 2020

Persistence and decay of human antibody responses to the receptor binding domain of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in COVID-19 patients

Iyer AS, Jones FK, Nodoushani A, Kellya M, Becker M, Slater D, Mills R, Teng E, Kamruzzaman M, Garcia-Beltran WF, Astudillo M, Diane Yang D, Miller TE, Olivera E, Fischinger S, Atyeo C, Iafrate AJ, Calderwood SB, Lauer SA, Yu J, Li Z, Feldman J, Hauser BM, Caradonna TM, Branda JA, Turbett SE, LaRocque RC, Mellon G, Barouch DH, Schmidt AG, Azman AS, Alter G, Ryan ET, Harris JB, Charles RC

Sci. Immunol, 2020: 5(52): eabe0367, 10.1126/sciimmunol.abe0367

27 Oct 2020

Repeat COVID-19 Molecular Testing: Correlation of SARS-CoV-2 Culture with Molecular Assays and Cycle Thresholds

Gniazdowski V, Morris CP, Wohl S, Mehoke T, Ramakrishnan S, Peter Thielen P, Powell H, Smith B, Armstrong DT, Herrera M, Reifsnyder C, Sevdali M, Carroll KC, Pekosz A, Mostafa HH

Clin. Infect. Dis., 2020: ciaa1616, 10.1093/cid/ciaa1616

Genomic Diversity of SARS-CoV-2 During Early Introduction into the United States National Capital Region

Thielen P, Wohl S, Mehoke T, Ramakrishnan S, Kirsche M, Falade-Nwulia O, Trovão NS, Ernlund A, Howser C, Sadowski N, Morris P, Hopkins M, Schwartz M, Fan Y, Gniazdowski V, Lessler J, Sauer L, Schatz MC, Evans JD, Ray SC, Timp W, Mostafa HH

MedRxiv, 2020: 10.1101/2020.08.13.20174136

7 Dec 2020

Development and Dissemination of Infectious Disease Dynamic Transmission Models during the COVID-19 Pandemic: What Can We Learn from Other Pathogens and How Can We Move Forward?

Becker AD, Grantz KH, Hegde ST, Bérubé S, Cummings DAT, Amy Wesolowski A

Lancet Digit Health, 2020: s2589-7500, 10.1016/s2589-7500(20)30268-5

21 Apr 2020

The important role of serology for COVID-19 control

Winter AK, Hegde ST

Lancet Infect Dis, 2020: 20(7): 758-759, 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30322-4

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